Forecast for Sunday 11.17: UPDATE2

• HIGH WIND WARNING...

 

*High Risk for severe storms; tornado outbreak possible...
Scattered thunderstorms possibly developing around midday, more likely into this afternoon. Tornadoes and strong winds are possible with these thunderstorms, with a significant chance for strong, long-lived tornadoes in Indiana. Another line of severe storms may impact the area by early evening. Please closely monitor the weather today, and take safe shelter if needed!

Afternoon temperatures: upper 60s, possibly near 70.

Outlook: Much colder on Monday with breezy conditions continuing.


HIGH WIND WARNING for Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Huntington, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben, Wells and Whitley counties.

LAST UPDATED 4:08 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
   SHIFT TO WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
   EVENING.

 * HIGHER GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

IMPACTS...

 * POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

 * DAMAGE TO TREES POSSIBLE.

 * DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
   VEHICLES SUCH AS SEMI-TRUCKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

   2:49 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
   AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting
   the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of
   the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through
   early tonight.

   The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

          Illinois
          Indiana
          Northern and Western Kentucky
          Lower Michigan
          Ohio
          Southeast Wisconsin

   Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will
   also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas,
   Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the
   Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.

   A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120
   knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the
   Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this
   occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will
   rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern
   Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.

   East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will
   spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to
   very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central
   United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the
   jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for
   severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving
   cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi
   and Ohio Valleys.

   Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and
   character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of
   the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of
   producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths
   of damaging surface winds.  

   The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive
   lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging
   winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early
   Monday.

   State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially
   very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to
   review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio,
   television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings,
   and statements later today.